My prediction of who is most likely to win the 2023 presidential election is preceded by the underlying assumptions that informed my choice. I believe that these conjectures would help douse the apprehension of those who may be sentimentally attached to their preferred candidates and let us have a robust conversation on the issue. Indeed, the election is an emotive exercise, so to predict who is likely to win the election should be done scientifically without vacuous predilection. Thus, my analysis is based on the variables at play within our political system. I did not invent them. I will only analyze and rationalize them based on my informed objective knowledge of the field. And since I do not have absolute control of the variables, my interrogation and prognosis are purely academic. I do hope that this admission obviates any prejudicial backlash from those for whom my prediction may not align with their popular expectations.
The first assumption is that politics is a game of interest, and for that reason, an election is not an altruistic leadership selection exercise. It is a game of preference and not necessarily who can best do the job. That explains why the candidate that the majority of people among the competing groups in society believe would most likely protect and promote their respective group's interests is most likely to win an election. Without a doubt, the dominant political actors in each group largely determine how the majority of their members vote in an election, be it an ethnic group, social group, religious group, business group, and so on. An election is a group affair. It's not an individual sport. Hence, those who work, play, or pray together are most likely to vote the same way than differently.
Following the above assumption, securing 25% of the votes in 2/3 of the 36 States and FCT by any of the leading presidential candidates would depend on his acceptability by the dominant political players in each state across the country. For example, Akwa Ibom State, which is predominantly PDP since 1999 is most likely to support the presidential candidate of the party in the 2023 election than any other candidate contesting on the platform of another party. A similar situation is also likely to play out in the states controlled by the ruling APC. However, the expected exception against the backdrop of the rotational presidency between the Northern and Southern parts of the country might be the G5 crisis-ridden PDP States. Also, the local politics of a state with two major contending political parties could flip the polls either way. But the political parties that don't have control of any state in the country have an uphill battle before them in the 2023 presidential polls. Mathematically speaking, to fulfill the constitutional requirements of winning the presidential election in the country from such a disadvantaged position is pragmatically unimaginable.
The second assumption is that our elections are largely moored on ethnic, religious, and regional pillars. What we have witnessed so far on the campaign trail of the leading political parties lends credence to this axiom. It would seem that each of the leading candidates enjoys tremendous support in his geopolitical zone than in the zones of their opponents, which means the North Central, Northwest, and South-South Zones that do not have a presidential candidate on the ballot will play a crucial role in deciding the outcome of the election.
On the influence of religion on the outcome of the election, it's pertinent to note that while some states in the Southern part and a few in the North Central Zone are not comfortable with the Muslim-Muslim candidacy of the ruling APC, all the states in the Northwest and parts of the North Central and Northeast support the ticket with their full chest and arsenal. Unfortunately, the leading presidential candidates have equally not helped matters as they tend to exploit the issue of religion to their advantage in states they share a similar faith with the electorates. Their actions have now made the election seem like a Muslim vs. Christian contest. I reckon that such sectarianism is bound to swing the election in favor of a candidate whose faith has a superior voting strength between the two main religious groups in the country. However, that does not in any way suggest that all voters are driven by religious traction.
Regarding regional interest, the candidate of the ruling APC is the core interest of the 14 Northern States controlled by his party and the 6 states in the Southwest Zone. While the candidate of the PDP enjoys similar support in the remaining 5 Northern States and 5 states in the South-South Zone controlled by his party. Even though the Southeast Zone is the base of the candidate of the Labour Party, the party is not in charge in any state in the zone and that may be part of the reason why the candidate doesn't have the support of the dominant political actors in the Zone who are members of other political parties. The Zone has been predominantly PDP but, in recent times, the APC has made inroads in Ebonyi and Imo States respectively. It would be interesting to see if the people of the Southeast would be swayed by party affiliations or ethnic considerations at the polls. Also, in the Southwest Zone, Oyo, and Osun States controlled by the PDP face a similar dilemma, but based on previous voting patterns, ethnicity will triumph over party affiliation in these two states. But the APC-controlled Cross River State doesn't seem to face such an enigma since none of the presidential candidates is from the South-South Zone. Without a doubt, ethnicity, religion, and regional interest would be the determining factors in who occupies Aso Rock after President Buhari.
The third assumption is that elections are won and lost at the ward level.
The wards are the battlegrounds in our election. The polling units are located there. The battle for all elective and appointive positions is fought and lost at the wards. All politicians know that if you do not deliver your ward to your political party, your value as a politician or stalwart is worthless. It is instructive to note that the number of wards that a party wins in a local government area leads to victory at the local government, state, and national levels. Therefore, it is not just the standard bearers of the political parties who are contesting the election to become president who are on the ballot, especially for the party in power, but any governor completing his 2nd term in office and wants to be a Minister or Senator, is on the ballot too. Furthermore, the governors, other candidates seeking reelection, and all manners of persons seeking appointments or patronage from the party are on the ballot during the presidential election because the party that wins the presidency usually carries that momentum into the gubernatorial and state house of assembly elections.
This group of people campaigns more rigorously and viciously than the presidential standard bearers. Even when the voters in their wards do not like the presidential candidate contesting the election for whatever reasons, these career politicians would insist that the voters are indirectly voting for them because if the candidate wins, they are sure of their elections, appointments, or patronages. In return, the voters are assured of their benevolence, especially when life happens to them.
In our brand of democracy, no presidential candidate can win the presidential election without having such politicians (structures) in at least four out of the six geopolitical zones in the country. Recall that, earlier President Muhammadu Buhari attempted to do so without such structures in three consecutive presidential elections and failed when he contested on the platform of the CPC between 2003 and 2011. Come to think of it, this is not peculiar to Nigeria, in the history of democracy globally, no presidential candidate has ever won an election on the platform of a featherweight party or as an independent candidate.
Following this assumption, it is obvious that the candidate with the most effective political structures in the 8,813 wards across the country would take the oath of office at Eagle Square on May 29th, 2023 after the first presidential election that would be conducted with the BVAS machine and results transferred electronically.
From my observation, it would seem like we are confronted with the 2015 electoral scenario that led to the defeat of former President Jonathan of the ruling PDP that was in power then. Who remembers that despite the vicious campaigns and resistance movement against Jonathan’s government that the South-South and Southeast voted massively to retain him in power? However, the North Central, Northeast, Northwest, and Southwest voted against Jonathan and denied him a second term in office. No consensus was reached among the six political zones to vote out Jonathan despite his abysmal performance in office. That was a classic demonstration of ethnic, religious, and regional interest by the six political zones. So, those who expect that such an agreement would be reached in this election based on how they perceive President Buhari’s performance against the ruling APC would be disappointed. That's because each political zone operates on the principle of rational choice theory. They usually carefully consider what they stand to benefit from the presidency of a particular candidate and its alternative before deciding on which candidate or party to support in the election.
Based on these three assumptions I have discussed above, my state-by-state prediction of how the election would pan out is presented below. However, keep in mind that all politics is local, and the presidential election is both politics and political.
The North Central Zone
Benue State----APC/LP*
Kogi State-----APC
Kwara State---APC
Nasarawa State--APC
Niger State ------APC
Plateau State----APC
In Benue State, if the resentment against Fulani hegemony is real and deep, coupled with the local politics, then APC or Labour Party would flip the state from the PDP.
The Northeast Zone
Adamawa State--PDP
Bauchi State----PDP
Bornu State----APC
Gombe State --APC
Taraba State---PDP
Yobe State----APC
The Northwest Zone
Jigawa State---APC
Kaduna State -APC
Kano State----APC/NNPP*
Katsina State--APC
Kebbi State---APC
Sokoto State-PDP
Zamfara State--APC
In Kano State, based on the number of registered voters and the local politics, both parties could secure 25% of 2/3 of the votes in the state.
The Southeast Zone
Abia State----LP
Anambra State--LP
Ebonyi State --APC
Enugu State ---LP
Imo State -----APC
The Southwest Zone
Ekiti State----APC
Lagos State---APC
Ogun State ---APC
Ondo State----APC
Oyo State ----APC
Osun State ---APC
The South-South Zone
Akwa Ibom State-PDP
Bayelsa State ----PDP/APC*
Cross River State APC
Delta State ------PDP
Edo State -------PDP
Rivers State -----PDP/APC*
In Bayelsa State, the PDP and APC are the two dominant parties, and the rivalry is intense. So, the polls could flip either way. In Rivers State, it’s Governor Wike and his people versus the PDP, and since he has chosen to support the presidential candidate of the APC clandestinely, the party would flip the state from the PDP.
The FCT--------APC
Taking into consideration the important variables that can influence the electoral outcome in the contemporary Nigerian political milieu and the state-by-state survey of party dominance, this election could be the easiest for the APC because the PDP has become fragmented and weakened with the emergence of Peter Obi and Rabiu Kwankwaso from its fold to contest on the platforms of the Labour Party and NNPP respectively, against the APC. These three leading opposition parties have not sufficiently threatened the trajectory the APC took to Aso Rock in 2015, and consolidated it in 2019, which would lead to APC’s near seamless victory at the polls in 2023.
Anyone who finds my prediction indigestible should take solace in the fact that the beauty of democracy isn't necessarily in your preferred candidate winning an election but in your ability to express your choice through the ballot without encumbrances.
Felix Akpan Ph.D
lixzito@yahoo.co.uk
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