The hullabaloo provoked by Chris Ngige's refusal to openly tell us who he will vote for in the next presidential election despite being a serving Minister in the Buhari-led government on national television is unnecessary because sometimes one can vote against his party if that is an integral part of the party's strategic plan for winning the election. It's instructive to note that in a democracy, any activity geared towards the success of a party at the polls even if it means aiding and abetting a minor party against a major rival party or voting for a minor party in a specific area to facilitate the victory of your party at the polls is allowed. Such moves are also not considered anti-party activity, especially by those who are privy to such schemes. That is the strategic plan the APC has adopted for winning the Southeast, which Ngige, like many of us, is probably not aware of.
For those of us who can second-guess the APC’s strategic plan in the Southeast, the choice of Andy Ubah over Chris Ngige as a member of the Presidential Campaign Council, (PCC) was a deliberate strategy designed to instigate Ngige to unknowingly work for the APC in his state by working against it because of his exclusion from the PCC. Read that again. Yes, that's exactly what it is. Working against your party but for the good of your party, unknowingly. This kind of strategy is usually used in a three-horse race like what we have in the country right now. Especially, in the areas where your major rival has a comparative advantage over you, but not necessarily over a minor party contesting the same election. To reduce your rival’s electoral fortune in the areas, you covertly or overtly support the minor party that has a preponderant influence in the areas to counter your main rival.
We may recall that the APC in Anambra State is still recovering from the recently concluded gubernatorial election, where it was beaten blue-black by AGPA. Chris Ngige couldn't even withstand Andy Ubah’s firepower at the APC’s primary election or AGPA’s Obunigwe ( also known as Ojukwu Bucket) in the main election. He took refuge in Abuja throughout that period romanticizing Labour Law and how to tackle the ASUU strike. This partly explains why he didn't make the PCC list.
Ngige has done well for himself and I think it is time for him to quit the stage and allow younger politicians the opportunity to engage at the National level. This is the time for him to sit back and recommend those he has groomed over the years if he has consciously done so to Tinubu for national service; if he wins the presidential election. Ngige who deluded himself on national television as an expert in Labour Law should either look for a Private University to go and teach Labour law or become a Labour Consultant to the two unions ( CONUA and NAMDA), he registered recently, pro bono.
Back to the APC winning game plan. The APC is not interested or at least, would not expend its strategy energy in winning Anambra State and by extension, the entire Southeast Zone. The party’s major interest in the Zone is to significantly reduce the electoral fortune of its main rival, the PDP. Since 2015, the party's performance in the Zone has been unimpressive, except in Imo State. Probably, with Governor Hope Uzodimma, the chances of APC securing 25% of the votes in Imo State is not disputable based on the nature and character of politics in the State. Similarly, Governor Dave Umahi’s defection from the PDP to the APC in Ebonyi State will significantly reduce the fortunes of the PDP in the State, but how that would benefit the APC could only be gauged after the election.
In the light of the above, the APC in appointing those who will lead its campaign in the Southeast deliberately selected persons who have the capacity and temperament to play a spoiler role for the party against the PDP. Their primary responsibility is to try and spoil the performance of the PDP in the election using the Labour Party. Without a doubt, no one can play the role better than Andy Ubah in Anambra State, Orji Kalu in Abia State, and Chimaroke Nnamani in Enugu State. These are not featherweight politicians and their assignment consists of breastfeeding the Obidients with the nutrients they need to be able to defeat the PDP at the polls in the Zone. It is in connection with this strategic plan that thousands of Ngige can vote for Peter Obi in Anambra State and other parts of the Southeast without the APC batting an eyelid.
The APC is using the same plan in the South-South political zone. For now, the APC has only been able to penetrate Cross River State because Governor Ben Ayade decamped from the PDP to the APC. Governor Ayade and his team will be able to secure 25% of the votes in the State for the APC because both the PDP and the Labour Party do not have the financial muscle to compete effectively in the State. The remaining 5 South-South States: Akwa Ibom, Bayelsa, Delta, Edo, and Rivers are proving Mugabe ( difficult ) for the APC at the moment. However, now that the Labour Party’s presidential candidate Peter Obi is soliciting funds from his supporters for the campaign exercise, the APC will utilize that window to clandestinely fund the campaign activities of the Labour Party in the Zone using proxies.
If the Labour Party can successfully penetrate the South-South that will be a significant victory for the APC because it will impact negatively on the PDP, which currently controls the Zone. That way neither the PDP nor the Labour Party will be able to achieve the necessary 25% of the votes in 24 states of the federation required by the Constitution for winning the presidential election.
In the North Central, the APC’s strategic plan is to consolidate its control of Kogi, Kwara, Nasarawa, Niger, and the Plateau States. The governors of those states are mobilizing and empowering their supporters at the grassroots with all the resources at their disposal. As it stands, the Labour Party doesn't
have the resources to compete effectively in the Zone. Undoubtedly, the “we no dey give shishi” mantra will not work in the Zone, especially now that the recent flood disasters have destroyed their farmland which is their major source of livelihood. Certainly, every shishi that comes their way now would surely influence how they will vote in the election. Thus, it behooves those contesting gubernatorial, state, and National Assembly elections who are from those constituencies affected by the flood to reach out to the people with their financial aid and material support. And the bulk of that support will come from their presidential candidate and the Party. That's the essence of having a party structure at all levels of the political spectrum.
For now, Benue State is relatively open because Governor Samuel Ortom who has consistently blamed the Fulanis for the woes which had befallen his State under Buhari's watch can not justify why his people should vote for another Fulani man, Atiku Abubakar. Governor Ortom who won the State on the platform of the APC and defected to the PDP is under intense pressure with Tinubu on the ballot against Atiku. However, the pendulum could swing in favor of the APC because of its gubernatorial candidate who is hugely popular in the State, and the fact that most PDP supporters in the State are likely to vote for Peter Obi instead of Atiku Abubakar another Fulani man.
The Northeast and Northwest Zones are still relatively a two-horse race between the APC and PDP. The Labour Party is still teetering up North and the NNPP is dilly-dallying. The Labour Party and NNPP haven't threatened the ruling APC in both Zones significantly. These two Zones have benefited more than the rest in all ramifications under President Buhari’s watch, so no one should expect that they would suddenly abandon the APC, just because Buhari will not be on the ballot. They would also not abandon the APC because of our economic and insecurity predicaments. They are more informed on issues of governance than we could ever imagine courtesy of the BBC Hausa Service and other local radio stations. So, they understand that solving our nation-building problems is not a sprint. And even if we elect a new government the problems would not be resolved automatically. We should also not forget that the people are not only politically savvy, but they cherish political power and they would not surrender it on a platter to Atiku or Obi. In line with the consolidation strategic plan of the APC, The governors of the nine states ( Kaduna, Katsina, Kano, Kebbi, Jigawa, Bornu, Gombe, Yobe, and Zamfara) controlled by the APC in the two Zones are unrelenting in ensuring that the APC retains power at the National level in 2023.
Anyone familiar with the politics of the Southwest Zone knows that regardless of the efforts of the opposition parties to penetrate the Zone, only Tinubu will secure 25% of the votes in all the states in the Zone. Lagos State is not only the Center of Excellence but the Center of Prosperity for all, irrespective of ethnicity and religion. Nobody, who has lived in Lagos and prospered, even if he or she sells pure water, in the last 20 years or more, no matter where he or she comes from, will refuse to vote for Tinubu who engineered the prosperity through successive governments.
Those who think that the Igbos who reside in Lagos will support Obi should better understand that it was business opportunities that took them to Lagos and not necessarily politics. For that reason, they are more concerned with the continuation of the prosperity they are benefitting from Lagos than voting against Tinubu. The majority of them will rather remain apolitical than do anything capable of affecting their businesses negatively.
We need to mull over this, If the PDP-led government could not defeat Tinubu in Lagos State for 16 years, how possible is it for anyone to do so now that Tinubu is on the ballot? It's instructive to note that the Yorubas understand what they stand to benefit as a group if they have a President of Southwest extraction in a deeply divided multiethnic society like Nigeria. On that note, those campaigning against Tinubu in the Southwest are doing so in vain because that would not yield a significant amount of votes.
From my perspective, it should be obvious to any discerning mind that without a strategic plan and a deep pocket you can not win the presidential election in the country. This explains why seasoned politicians and pundits unapologetically advise the Obidients that no one wins an election on social media or by marching and dancing on the street. I doubt that the Obidients understand that whatever victory they muster in the Southeast and South-South without a corresponding one in the Southwest and the North amounts to a victory for Tinubu and the APC over Atiku and the PDP. Conversely, victory for Tinubu and the APC in the Southwest and the North without a complementary victory in the Southeast and South-South secures Tinubu and the APC victory at the polls because Obi and the Obidients are competing against Atiku and the PDP. Regrettably, neither of them is competing against Tinubu and the APC in the North Central, Northeast, Northwest, and Southwest. If Atiku and Obi do not sufficiently engage Tinubu and the APC in those four Zones within the remaining 137 days before the election I will start selling asobi for Tinubu’s inauguration ceremony.
Felix Akpan Ph.D
lixzito@yahoo.co.uk
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