The Southeast, Zoning and the Presidency

 The Southeast, Zoning and the Presidency 

Since the flag off of the 2023 electioneering  activities by INEC, the selection of the presidential candidates for the two major political parties, APC and PDP, has not only assumed center stage but has also further polarized the country in all ramifications. As it stands, it would seem in principle that the ruling Party, the APC, has zoned its presidential slot to the Southern part of the country, which comprises the Southeast, Southwest, and South-South geopolitical zones. Hence, the Party's flag bearer would emerge from either of the three Zones after its presidential primary. 

The contest looks pretty straightforward but it's not because the Southeast, unlike the other two Zones, has never produced a president of the country. As a result, the Southeast feels entitled to the presidential ticket of the Party and appeals to President Mohammandu Buhari and other power brokers in the Northern part of the country to ensure a Southeast presidential aspirant secures the ticket for the sake of ‘justice and equity’. 

Would President Buhari and his Northern co-travelers oblige them in their request? If they do, what is the likely implication on the Party and the Southwest that has invested heavily in the Party? What kind of spillover effect will such consideration have on the Northeast and North Central Zones that have also not produced a president of the country? These questions are the dilemma of President Buhari and his people in the Northwest.

From available records, the APC won the 2015 and 2019 presidential elections without significant input from the Southeast Zone. That means the Party didn't meet the required 25% of the votes cast in any of the five states in the Zone. This makes the Southeast the second weakest political link of the Party after the South-South in terms of electoral value. 

It would seem like most people from the Southeast are prejudiced against the APC resulting from their dislike of President Buhari and his hegemonic Fulani ethnic group. This hatred is deep and derives its instrumentality from the progrom of 1966 in the North against the Igbos, which led to the Biafran war between 1967 and 1970. It's in connection with the adverse impact of the war that the Igbos are demanding the presidential ticket as restitution to bring them up to a par with the Yoruba and Hausa-Fulani ethnic groups that have produced presidents of the country respectively, and repeatedly. That's the ‘justice and equity’ they are demanding from the APC and PDP. They want the 2023 presidential election to be an Igbo affair as it was in 1999, a purely Yoruba fest, in the two major parties: PDP and ANPP.

Their demand and arguments look appropriate and convincing without being questioned at face value. However, political decisions involving winning an election should not necessarily be taken at face value because APC could zone the ticket to the Southeast and lose the election based on the deep resentment of the Igbos for the Party and the consequences of the Southwest withdrawing their support for the Party. This explains why APC would rather consolidate its previous winning strategy than jettison it to chart a new unlikely course of action. The implication of this new course of action would also be too heavy to bear because when power is reverted to the North, the North Central, and Northeast would lay claim to it, which means that the concept of a monolithic north would finally be buried. 

Conversely, for the PDP zoning the Party's ticket to the Southeast isn't the problem but winning the presidential election is the Party's dilemma because of the presumed deep-seated distrust of the Igbos amongst the populace in the North and Southwest. Those pushing such a lame narrative, real or perceived, believe that it would most likely impact negatively on the outcome of the polls, which explains why they are opposed to a presidential candidate of Southeast extraction. 

But that's not the only dilemma the PDP faces at the moment. The second one is getting all former elective and appointive leaders in the Party clamoring for the Party's ticket to close rank and put the Party's interest above theirs and select a formidable, charismatic candidate with less political baggage, who would be sellable to the electorates effortlessly. The search is on and it may prove costly for the Party if they select the wrong candidate. For me, it's in the best interest of the Party to pick its presidential candidate from the Southeastern part of the country because it would stand the Party in good stead in the 2023 election.

In my opinion, the latter dilemma is the greatest problem confronting the PDP, the former is a conjecture by the elites to deny the Igbos the presidency. If not, how do we rationalize Igbophobia when the Igbos are the only ethnic group one could find in every nook and cranny of Nigeria who live in harmony with their host communities and contribute to its development in all ramifications. Supposedly Igbophobia exists, the leaders of the PDP in those places should use their influence to assuage such erroneous perceptions. 

Before the PDP enters the ring with the APC in 2023, they need to chart a new course to be able to defeat its opponent because just zoning the Party's ticket to the Southeast wouldn't automatically translate to victory at the polls. But there is a 50-50 chance that PDP could win the presidential election if they get their act together because President Buhari would not be on the ballot. 

On the likelihood of the PDP winning the 2023 presidential election, if only they can keep their eyes on the ball: the highest number of votes cast in the election and 25% of votes in 2/3 of the states in the country and the FCT, and remember it cannot be actualized by zoning as most of the Party's presidential aspirants seem to romanticize. It can only be achieved through a deliberate orchestrated political strategy reminiscent of what the APC did in 2015 or something more sophisticated.

With President Buhari's 12 million votes off the table coupled with the precarious economic and security conditions in the country, the prospects of PDP are bright, if they pick the right candidate for the job. Looking at the Party's current position, any discerning mind would agree with me that the 2023 election provides PDP an opportunity to recapture power from the APC if only they can focus more on winning the presidential election than on zoning. 

 At present, the Party effectively controls the Southeast and South-South geopolitical Zones and has a significant presence in the North Central, Northeast, and Southwest, which they could utilize to secure more wins for the Party. In the Northwest, if Governor Aminu Tambuwal could tone down his infantilism and use his vast resources to secure votes for the Party, he would have unrestricted access to the next president of the country like the “Asiwaju of Africa,”  currently does, in the voice of Aliko Dangote.

It's most likely that the Southwest would clinch the APC’s presidential ticket and so the contest is likely to be between a Southwest candidate and a Southeast candidate. If that happens, it would be a tough battle because the Southwest is not only politically savvy but conscious as a group in the Marxist sense of consciousness.  That also means the election would be won and lost in North Central and the Northeast. This is because if the President Buhari and Tinubu alliance still subsists by then, the Northwest would support the Southwest. But that doesn't mean the Northwest is not impervious. Already, with the significant numbers of people of Southeast extraction in the Zone, if they are effectively mobilized and conscientized, the PDP could secure the 25% of votes in Sokoto, Kaduna, Kebbi, and Kano States.

Instructively, I would expect that PDP power brokers know by now that a presidential candidate can no longer win the election through crowd-renting, empty rhetoric, stomach infrastructure, and sentimental infantilism. That approach ended with the defeat of former President Goodluck Jonathan in the 2015 election. But it would seem like most of the Party's presidential aspirants are oblivious to this aphorism. In this regard, Governor Nyesom Wike and former Governor of Ekiti State, Ayo Fayose lead the pack ignorantly.

In today's world, to win a presidential election a political party needs the services of political consultants to tip the electoral scales in its favor using social media. This explains why they hire pollsters, hackers, and trolls to help influence electoral outcomes. For those who don't know the APC National Leader, Ahmed Bola Tinubu, brought in some political consultants from the United States who delivered Buhari’s victory in the 2015 polls. It might also not be common knowledge, so let me say it here, the consultants Tinubu hired played a significant role in getting Barrack Obama into the White House. Therefore, they don't come cheap. However, that doesn't suggest we do not have political consultants in the country who can deliver if they are properly engaged. Even the American team Tinubu hired,  relied heavily on our home-based political analysts. 

The activities of these consultants affected how people think and change their decisions to vote for Buhari instead of former President Jonathan. Through the messages they put in the public domain using social media, they mirrored Buhari as the solution to all our problems, which “baked in” voters’ minds even before they cast their votes. You may recall messages like, “there's nothing like fuel subsidy, it's a fraud”, “one naira will be equivalent to one dollar, when Buhari comes to power”, “ Jonathan's government is the most corrupt in the history of this country” and many others, which tinged the image of Jonathan negatively in the minds of voters. 

Hence, Jonathan lost the election before the polls. This is the level of political sophistication at which the APC operates. And the brains behind it are largely politicians of Southwest extraction. So, you can imagine what they would bring to the fray in 2023. So, PDP should step up its game this time around if they want to defeat the APC in the next election. 

Undoubtedly, democracies around the world have begun to realize the prodigious impact of social media on the electoral outcome and they are making efforts through legislation to regulate its adverse effects and to persecute those who use it deliberately to manipulate the electoral process as the Russians did to get Trump to the White House in 2016, though this proposition is still highly contested by scholars, politicians and security agents in the United States.

That notwithstanding, social media is now the most effective tool to manipulate elections without being physically present at the polling unit or engaging with the voters directly because it could be use remotely  to influence how voters vote without them realizing that they are being manipulated.

Based on previous APC electoral maneuvering, I do hope that the Southeast realizes that securing the presidential ticket through zoning might not lead to the breaking of kolanut in Aso rock in 2023, if they don't put in the time to counter whatever rabbit APC would put in the hat.

Felix Akpan PhD

lixzito@yahoo.co.uk