Lessons From The American Presidential Elections

 

*By Felix Akpan PhD*

Before the euphoria of the defeat of the infamous incumbent president of the United States of America, Donald Trump, diminishes and we move on to whatever the year 2021 would foist on us, let's reason together.

 What lessons can we draw from the 2020 American Presidential Election to improve our own brand of democracy before our next general election in 2023? With hindsight, what readily comes to mind is electoral reform and the introduction of electronic voting to reduce the delay in processing electoral results and fraud. That's what every decent person desires except our crooked politicians. However, that's not the focus of this piece. Rather, how to curtail the dominance of the northern part of the country in our presidential election using the American styled Electoral College is my focus. 

As it stands, there is only one route to the presidency in the Nigerian social formation. And that's through the Northwest. Apart from military coup, no one from any part of the country can get to Aso Rock Villa, our equivalent of the White House through the ballot without going through the Northwest. From the way most Southerners antagonize northerners on the social media, I doubt if they are conscious of this truism. It is for this reason, no insult intended, that Mohammadu Buhari became president without the vote of the Southeast and South South. For that same reason,  Ahmed Bola Tinubu and his co-travellers entered into alliance with the Northwest to edge out former president Goodluck Jonathan in 2015. And most recently, for that same reason, the Northern Governors Forum and Northern political leaders held a meeting on the #ENDSARS Protest and decided on their own course of action irrespective of what the rest of the country thinks. All because they know that no one can get to the promised land without their anointment. You say: 'such arrogance!' Oh yes! 

But wait a minute, how did we arrive here in the first place? Does that really matter? I don't think so since it is sanctioned by the Constitution and Electoral Act. To become President of Nigeria through the ballot where more than two candidates are contesting, section 134(2)(a) and (b) of the 1999 Constitution as amended, provides that :

(2) A candidate for an election to the office of president shall be deemed to have been duly elected where, there being more than two candidates for the election.

(a) he has the highest number of votes cast at the election,

(b) he has not less than one-quarter of votes cast at the election each of at least two thirds of all the States in the Federation and FCT, Abuja. 

Concurrently, section 69 of the Electoral Act as amended provides..." that subject to the provisions of sections 133, 134 and 179 of the Constitution, the candidate that receives the highest number of votes shall be declared elected by the appropriate returning officer." Both the constitutions and the Electoral Act  are skewed in favour of the Northwest since we use popular vote to determine who becomes president of the country. Our traditional voting pattern based on religion and ethnicity gives the Northwest advantage over the rest of the country with 18 million plus registered voters.

As the 2023  presidential election beckons no amount of electoral reform would alter the  jaundiced status quo ante dominance of the Northwest in our national politics. Between the Southeast and Southwest whichever group the Northwest chooses to support would produce the next president of the country, especially in the ruling political party, APC.  For us to have a contest, the opposition party, PDP shouldn't  dare pick a presidential candidate from outside the zone the ruling party would pick its. Otherwise, the election would be over even before we cast our first votes.  I have consistently used the Northwest in my presentation because most states in the North Central and Northeast normally align with the Northwest when it comes to presidential elections.

It was to avoid this kind of scenario, where a section of the country becomes too powerful based on  population that led to the introduction of the electoral college system by the founding fathers of the United States of America. They reasoned that direct election based on majority rule would lead to a situation where only the most populous States would determine who becomes president and vice president at anytime. And no matter how badly they perform in office, it becomes difficult to vote them out if they still enjoy the support of the states that voted them into power. They also reasoned that the electoral college would give every state equal opportunity of electing the president and vice president irrespective of size, population and political affiliation. This is because to obtain the 270 electoral college votes required to be declared president-elect out of a total of 538, a presidential candidate cannot underestimate states with fewer electoral college votes. And most importantly, the electoral college opens up multiple routes to the office of the president and vice president. For emphasis,  the 6 Nevada electoral college votes are  as important as Georgia with 11 or Pennsylvania with 20 electoral college votes. Thus, a presidential candidate requires a combination of electoral college votes from the 50 States and the District of Colombia to reach the 270 mark. This also explains why the president irrespective of party affiliation cannot sideline even those states who didn't vote for him for fear of retribution in the next election.

In the US, the Constitution assigns each state the number of electoral college votes based on  the combined number of representatives and senators they have in the US Congress. And 3 votes to the District of Colombia, the capital city.  Before now those who represented the states in the electoral college after the general election were expected to vote based on the results of the popular vote in their respective states.  And the tradition has been adhered to even without any constitutional pronouncement with insignificant defiance by some electors. However, since inception, no upset  has ever been recorded and  whoever wins the popular vote also wins at the electoral college. But in 2020, the US Supreme Court ruled that the states have the constitutional power to force electors to vote according to their state's popular vote.

For me, the introduction of the electoral college system into our electoral system would significantly reduce the dominance of the Northwest geopolitical zone in our national politics. Alternatively,  instead of that we amend section 134 (2)(b) of the Constitution to read, " he has not less than one-quarter of the votes cast at the election each of at least two thirds of  3 States in each of the six geopolitical zone in the Federation and FCT, Abuja. That way no one can become president without the votes of all sections of the country. That's also another way of dualizing the road to Aso Rock without passing through the Northwest. This is the kind of issue advocates of restructuring and our youths should drive home if we want to see the productive change we deserve.