A good starting point will be how we arrived at the standoff between Governor Godwin Obaseki and Pastor Ize Iyamu. I will skip the details since it is well documented. But I will only emphasize the advantage I presume that the incumbent governor has. Anyone that remotely follows Edo State politics will agree with me that despite the imbroglio between Godwin Obaseki and his benefactor, Adams Oshiomhole, who is now his arch-enemy, he had never accused Governor Godwin Obaseki of gross dereliction of duty as the governor of Edo State. Rather, his main grouse would seem to be the Governor's refusal to do his covetous political bidding. This may just be what decides, who the silent majority in both APC and PDP, who are more interested in the development of the State than politics of personal aggrandizement, would cast their ballot for in the election.
Who is likely going to win the Edo State gubernatorial election? The likely determinants of the outcome of the election is the focus of this piece.
It would seem like the defection of Governor Godwin Obaseki to the PDP has enhanced the Party's war chest in the forthcoming election in the State. With hindsight, we all know the significant role the power of incumbency could play in such election, especially when the incumbent governor is seeking reelection for a second term in office. In fact, even if the incumbent is not seeking reelection, no one can rule out the added advantage such powers give to a candidate in an election in Nigeria. In this regard, how Governor Obaseki became the Chief Executive of Edo State would suffice.
As it stands, Pastor Ize Iyamu would be contesting against Governor Obaseki for the second time but on a different platform. In 2016, he was in PDP, while Godwin Obaseki contested on the platform of the APC. In my opinion, for those of you who can recall, that election was actually between the former Governor, Adams Oshiomhole and Ize Iyamu because Godwin Obaseki was just Adams Oshiomhole's political protégé. It was Adams Oshiomhole's power of incumbency that gave Godwin Obaseki the victory in that election.
Unfortunately, just when we thought that Ize Iyamu who is now the APC gubernatorial candidate for the 2020 election would have Adams Oshiomhole's weight behind his back this time around, tragedy struck: the Appeal Court upheld his suspension as the National Chairman of APC. As if that was not bad enough, the NEC of the Party sacked Adams Oshiomhole by dissolving the NWC of the Party. That decision has not only denied Ize Iyamu of Adams Oshiomhole's arsenal and doggedness, it also skewed the odds overwhelmingly in favour of Godwin Obaseki.
Undoubtedly, with Adams Oshiomhole out of the picture tactically, Ize Iyamu is clearly now the underdog in the 2020 Edo State election because his candidacy for the gubernatorial race was forced on the Party by Adams Oshiomhole. That signposts the fact that he will most likely not get all the members of the Party behind his back. A significant number would cast their ballot for Governor Godwin Obaseki. Whereas, Godwin Obaseki is likely going to get the support of all the PDP members in the State based on the fact that no aspirant has defected from the Party since he clinched the gubernatorial ticket. Thus, the switching of party platforms between the two governorship aspirants seem to swing the pendulum in favour of Godwin Obaseki.
For those who are inclined to superstitious beliefs, it would seem like the gods of the land are against Ize Iyamu each time he contests the governorship position with Godwin Obaseki. But that's not true. It is just a coincidence caused by Adams Oshiomhole's skewed and almost shallow knowledge of party supremacy. From the look of things, those who celebrated the fall of Adams Oshiomhole and the advantage it would seem to accord Governor Obaseki even have cause to celebrate more, based on the composition of the APC National Election Council that would coordinate the Edo State election headed by Abudullahi Umar Ganduje, the controversial Governor of Kano State.
Abudullahi Umar Ganduje's tainted public image and the fact that he is Hausa/Fulani offers the PDP the opportunity to push the popular narrative, "they want to capture Edo State and allow Fulani herdsmen to move in and annex the land". This narrative resonates with uninformed or biased voters in the South South. Based on previous electoral statistics, there is no doubt in my mind that such narrative would surely hurt Ize Iyamu's electability.
The issue of character and integrity comes next. Governor Abudullahi Ganduje's unresolved bribe scandal in dollars that went viral on popular media not too long ago, provides the PDP another potent cannon to shoot APC down in Edo State. The icing on the cake would be the 2016 EdoDecides APC campaign videos of Adams Oshiomhole pillorying Ize Iyamu in an unforgettable and unforgivable manner. In my opinion, Adams Oshiomhole's allegations against Ize Iyamu in those infamous videos were beyond mudslinging, which is an acceptable democratic practice. Undoubtedly, those videos would surely come to hunt and vitiate APC's chances in the election.
The inclusion of the former National Chairman of APC, John Odigie Oyegun, whose support for Governor Godwin Obaseki is not negotiable, as a member of the APC National Election Council would impact negatively too on Ize Iyamu's fortune in the election because of his disdain for Adams Oshiomhole kind of politics and politicking. Since politics is a game of interest, the wily old fox knows that having Ize Iyamu as governor of the State would give Adams Oshiomhole an advantage over him in the State. But if Governor Godwin Obaseki gets reelected, Adams Oshiomhole might just become part of the chequered history of Edo State. Hence, as a former Chairman of the APC, he would cautiously and covertly put his weight behind the incumbent governor to avoid being accused of engaging in anti-party activities.
Comparatively, even though debatable, Godwin Obaseki's performance in the last 4 years as governor of the State is far better than all the previous democratically elected governors put together. That also puts him in good stead above Ize Iyamu, who has no appreciable public service record. This is probably why most APC stalwarts in the State, except those loyal to Adams Oshiomhole, particularly those from the 12 constituencies whose House of Assembly members are yet to be inaugurated, are not happy with Adams Oshiomhole over Governor Godwin Obaseki's exist from the Party.
It is in those 12 constituencies ( Etsako West 1, Etsako West 11, Etsako Central, Etsako East and Esan Central. Others are: Unhunmonde, Owan West, Oredo West, Egor, Ovia North 1, Ovia North East 11 and Ovia South west) we should expect a fierce battle during the election because those 12 members would do just anything to ensure that Governor Godwin Obaseki does not win in their respective constituencies. But that will be an uphill task for them since they have Governor Godwin Obaseki's appointees and PDP stalwarts from those constituencies to contend with. In fact, those political appointees would fight to finish to deliver their constituencies to their principal in order to retain their positions or get new appointments, if their principal gets reelected.
From the look of things, the fate that befell former President Goodluck Jonathan in the last presidential elections-embezzlement of party funds, is most likely going to be Ize Iyamu greatest undoing in the election. There is a high probability that most of the remaining APC members, who are Adams Oshiomhole's loyalists, would embezzle party funds meant for mobilization, community outreach and other logistics because of how the Party treated their principal, Adams Oshiomhole. This shouldn't surprise anyone because it is not out of character to do so. In fact, it is an acceptable democratic practice in our clime. The fact that their principal is no longer in a position to allocate values make the option even more appealing. Even some members of the National Election Council are not immune to embezzling party funds. Not when some of them still maintain cordial relationship with the Governor behind the camera. From what we gleaned from their close associates, many of them are not happy with Adams Oshiomhole over Governor Godwin Obaseki's exist from the Party. That too, would impact negatively on Ize Iyamu chances of winning the election.
The only plausible advantage that Ize Iyamu has over Governor Godwin Obaseki is what we popularly refer to as Federal might. In Nigerian politics, that's usually the weapon of the ruling party in an election. It works best when the opposition party does not have the support of the people and vice versa. This partly explains why PDP was unable to overrun Lagos State, when they were in power. It is also for the same reason APC has been unable to penetrate Akwa Ibom, Cross River, Delta and Rivers States respectively. In the Edo State gubernatorial election, Philip Shaibu, Governor Godwin Obaseki's deputy, like Governor Neyson Wike of Rivers State, has the capacity to contend with federal might. It might also not be a coincidence that the Governor of Rivers State is the Chairman of the PDP National Election Council for the same election. For those of you who can recall, how Governor Abdullahi Ganduje of kano State, won his reelection bid last year, that makes him an expert in the deployment of federal might. That too may be partly the reason why he is the one coordinating the election for APC.
From my analysis and interpretation of these largely circumstantial evidence, ceteris paribus, they lend credence to Godwin Obaseki victory at the polls. However, like every seasoned pollster knows, unforseen circumstances can swing the result in favour of Ize Iyamu. If and only if that happens, Adams Oshiomhole would be flying without wings. Otherwise, Adams Oshiomhole would not be able to withstand the fury of those inclined to the political phraseology-"Edo is not Lagos"-would unleash on him, if Godwin Obaseki gets reelected.
*Felix Akpan, PhD*
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